The 2011 MTV Video Music Awards are taking off tonight, and believe it or not, this is an awards show that has more legitimacy than most.  Unfortunately, this legitmacy has been on the downturn in the past decade.  It is not that bad music videos are being awarded, it is that the safer picks –  like “Umbrella” and “Bad Romance” –  are chosen, while the truly best and most daring – like Fatboy Slim’s “Weapon of Choice” or Justice’s “D.A.N.C.E.” or The Black Keys’ “Tighten Up” – are merely given perfunctory nominations or relegated to less prestigious (but more interesting) categories like Breakthrough Video (which is not being awarded this year).  This is mainly due to MTV’s pop bias, which the network got away with in the early days of the VMA’s, as the best music videos back then could be found among the popular ones.  But in the modern music world, there are tons of indie artists making music videos along with the popular artists, and every video can easily be propagated through YouTube.  Thus, the best videos often have to be actively sought after, which means MTV is now mostly recognizing the best of only a subset of the music video world.  And in that limited capacity, a pretty good job is done.  Anyway, here is a category-by-category breakdown.

Video of the Year
Adele – “Rolling in the Deep”
Beastie Boys – “Make Some Noise”
Bruno Mars – “Grenade”
Katy Perry – “Firework”
Tyler, the Creator – “Yonkers”
Will Win: Katy Perry is the most nominated artist (with 4 different videos being recognized), but “Rolling in the Deep” is by far the biggest hit of the year and pretty close to a sure thing.
Should Win: Stark black-and-white photography and memorable images (cockroach, vomit, hanging) make for a winning combination when it comes to music videos, as “Yonkers” provides evidence of.

Best Male Video
Justin Bieber – “U Smile”
Eminem ft. Rihanna – “Love the Way You Lie”
Cee-Lo Green – “Fuck You!”
Bruno Mars – “Grenade”
Kanye West ft. Rihanna and Kid Cudi – “All of the Lights”
Will Win: Unless the VMA’s are determined entirely by fan voting (and I’m pretty sure they’re not; if they were, this category would go to Bieber), this is a toss-up between Eminem and Cee-Lo.  I give the edge to “Fuck You!” for being more recent and more upbeat.
Shoudl Win: Looking for striking visual imagery?  Look no further than “All of the Lights.”

Best Female Video
Adele – “Rolling in the Deep”
Beyoncé – “Run the World (Girls)”
Lady GaGa – “Born This Way”
Nicki Minaj – “Super Bass”
Katy Perry – “Firework”
Will Win: “Rolling in the Deep.” Biggest hit of the year, don’t you know?
Should Win: “Rolling in the Deep.”  The vibrating glasses of water are what really sell it.

Best New Artist
Big Sean ft. Chris Bown – “My Last”
Foster the People – “Pumped Up Kicks”
Kreayshawn – “Gucci Gucci”
Tyler, the Creator – “Yonkers”
Wiz Khalifa – “Black and Yellow”
Will Win: The fact that Tyler is up for Video of the Year doesn’t really mean much for his chances here.  “Black and Yellow” was the biggest hit out of this bunch.  But don’t count Tyler out, as Avenged Sevenfold beat Chris Brown and Rihanna in 2006 and Tokio Hotel beat Katy Perry and Taylor Swift in 2008.
Should Win: You gotta want someone who is going to have a long career of making great videos winning here. I think “Yonkers” proves that will be the case with Tyler, the Creator.

Best Pop Video
Adele – “Rolling in the Deep”
Bruno Mars – “Grenade”
Katy Perry – “Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.)”
Pitbull ft. Ne-Yo, Afrojack, and Nayer – “Give Me Everything”
Britney Spears – “Till the World Ends”
Will Win: This award has lately been closely in line with Video of the Year, which bodes well for “Rolling in the Deep.”
Should Win: Celebrity cameos that are witty and actually have a purpose?  Thank you, “Last Friday Night.”

Best Rock Video
The Black Keys – “Howlin’ for You”
Cage the Elephant – “Shake Me Down”
Foo Fighters – “Walk”
Foster the People – “Pumped Up Kicks”
Mumford & Sons – “The Cave”
Will Win: This award doesn’t always go to the biggest hit (as lately there isn’t always a big hit among the nominees).  The four relatively new artists may cancel each other out, leading the way for the oft-nominated but never victorious Foo Fighters to win for “Walk.”
Should Win: The fake-trailer (especially the grindhouse variety) conceit has become a bit overdone, but when it’s done well, it’s done well, as in “Howlin’ for You.”

Best Hip-Hop Video
Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne and Busta Rhymes – “Look at Me Now”
Lupe Fiasco – “The Show Goes On”
Lil Wayne ft. Cory Gunz – “6 Foot 7 Foot”
Nicki Minaj – “Super Bass”
Kanye West ft. Rihanna and Kid Cudi – “All of the Lights”
Will Win: The VMA’s love a good comeback story, which is good news for “6 Foot 7 Foot” from Lil Wayne, who is in the midst of his post-prison career resurgence.
Should Win: There’s a Hype Williams clip (“All of the Lights”) nominated?  Give it to him.  He makes classic hip-hop spots in his sleep.

Best Collaboration
Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne and Busta Rhymes – “Look at Me Now”
Nicki Minaj ft. Drake – “Moment 4 Life”
Katy Perry ft. Kanye West – “E.T.”
Pitbull ft. Ne-Yo, Nayer, and Afrojack – “Give Me Everything”
Kanye West ft. Rihanna and Kid Cudi – “All of the Lights”
Will Win: It may be too hard to resist the big number of credited artists and Pitbull’s rising star power in “Give Me Everything.”
Should Win: “All of the Lights.”  Kanye is the current king of collaborations and RiRi is the queen of hooks.

Best Direction
30 Seconds to Mars – “Hurricane” (Dir. Bartholomew Cubbins)
Adele – “Rolling in the Deep” (Dir. Sam Brown)
Beastie Boys – “Make Some Noise” (Dir. Adam Yauch)
Eminem ft. Rihanna – “Love the Way You Lie” (Dir. Joseph Kahn)
Katy Perry ft. Kanye West – “E.T.” (Dir. Floria Sigismondi)
Will Win: Best Direction can match up with Video of the Year, and there aren’t really any other strong contenders this year.  So congratulations, Sam Brown.
Should Win: The general mark of good music video direction is striking imagery, which is what Floria Sigismondi gave us in “E.T.”

Best Choreography
Beyoncé – “Run the World (Girls)” (Choreographer: Frank Gatson)
Lady Gaga – “Judas” (Chroeographer: Laurieann Gibson)
LMFAO ft. Lauren Bennett and GoonRock – “Party Rock Anthem” (Choreographer: Hokuto Konishi)
Bruno Mars – “The Lazy Song” (Choreographers: Bruno Mars and Poreotics)
Britney Spears – “Till the World Ends” (Choreographer: Brian Friedman)
Will Win: It is the “Party Rock Anthem” of the summer, and it has got people shufflin’.
Should Win: The moves aren’t overly impressive in “Party Rock Anthem,” but they are plenty fun.

Best Special Effects
Chromeo – “Don’t Turn the Lights On” (Special Effects: The Mill)
Linkin Park — “Waiting for the End” (Special Effects: Ghost Town Media)
Manchester Orchestra — “Simple Math” (Special Effects: DANIELS)
Katy Perry ft. Kanye West — “E.T.” (Special Effects: Jeff Dotson for Dot & Effects)
Kanye West ft. Dwele — “Power” (Special Effects: Nice Shoes and ArtJail)
Will Win: The VMA’s like some hook to their special effects, but not something too unusual, which bodes well for “Waiting for the End.”
Should Win: Those bulging eyes in “Don’t Turn the Lights On” truly were “special.”

Best Art Direction
Adele – “Rolling in the Deep” (Art Director: Nathan Parker)
Death Cab for Cutie – “You Are a Tourist” (Art Directors: Nick Gould, Tim Nackashi and Anthony Maitz)
Lady Gaga – “Judas” (Art Director: Amy Danger)
Katy Perry ft. Kanye West – “E.T.” (Art Director: Jason Fijal)
Kanye West ft. Dwele – “Power” (Art Director: Babak Radboy)
Will Win: “Power” was all about art direction.  Hopefully MTV gets that.
Should Win: “Power.”

Best Editing
30 Seconds to Mars – “Hurricane” (Editors: Jared Leto, Frank Snider, Michael Bryson, Stefanie Visser and Daniel Carberry)
Adele – “Rolling in the Deep” (Editor: Art Jones at Work)
Manchester Orchestra – “Simple Math” (Editor: DANIELS)
Katy Perry ft Kanye West – “E.T.” (Editor: Jarrett Fijal)
Kanye West ft. Rihanna and Kid Cudi – “All of the Lights” (Editor: Hadaya Turner)
Will Win: Unless “Rolling in the Deep” wins everything, voters will probably recognize the painstaking work of splicing “All of the Lights” together.
Should Win: It might be dangerous viewing for epileptics, but “All of the Lights” is well-done dangerous viewing for epileptics.

Best Cinematography
30 Seconds to Mars – “Hurricane” (Directors of Photography: Benoît Debie, Jared Leto, Rob Witt and Daniel Carberry)
Adele – “Rolling in the Deep” (Director of Photography: Tom Townend)
Beyoncé – “Run the World (Girls)” (Director of Photography: Jeffrey Kimball)
Eminem ft. Rihanna – “Love the Way You Lie” (Director of Photography: Christopher Probst)
Katy Perry – “Teenage Dream” (Director of Photography: Paul Laufer)
Will Win: With Megan Fox, Dominic Monaghan, and a burning house, “Love the Way You Lie” may have had the most front-and-center elements that caught the camera’s eye.
Should Win: “Teenage Dream” is the sexiest and most lovingly shot video of the past year.

Best Video with a Message
Eminem ft. Rihanna – “Love the Way You Lie”
Lady Gaga – “Born This Way”
Katy Perry – “Firework”
Pink – “Fuckin’ Perfect”
Rise Against – “Make It Stop (September’s Children)”
Taylor Swift – “Mean”
Will Win: “Born This Way”: GaGa is the performer with a message du jour these days.
Should Win: With “Make It Stop,” Rise Against showed us that the one thing the anti-gay bullying campgain had yet to do was rock out.

Best Latino Artist of 2011
Don Omar and Lucenzo – “Danza Kuduro”
Enrique Iglesias ft. Ludacris and DJ Frank E – “Tonight (I’m Lovin’ You)”
Maná – “Lluvia al Corazón”
Prince Royce – “Corazón Sin Cara”
Wisin & Yandel – “Zun Zun Rompiendo Caderas”
Will Win: Don Omar may not be as big a name as Enrique stateside, but with over 200 million hits, “Danza Kuduro” is the 14th most viewed video of all time on YouTube.
Should Win: I’ve appreciated Don Omar whenever he makes an appearance on a Fast and Furious soundtrack, and “Danza Kuduro” showed up in Fast Five.