92nd Oscars Predictions/Preferences

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CREDIT: NEON CJ Entertainment

Here’s my quick rundown of who’s most likely grab the gold on Sunday, February 9, 2020, and whom I would vote for if I had a ballot.

Best Picture
Prediction: Parasite (unless 1917 is fully dominant)
Preference: Parasite

Best Director
Prediction: Sam Mendes
Preference: Bong Joon-ho


The 2019 Jeff Malone Academy Awards

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If I were in charge of unilaterally selecting the Oscars, here is who would be selected. Nominees are listed alphabetically, winners in bold.

Best Picture
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Greener Grass
Ready or Not
Uncut Gems
Under the Silver Lake


‘Green Book’ is a Modestly Enjoyable Movie, But It Shouldn’t Have Won Best Picture

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CREDIT: Universal Pictures/Participant Media

Of all the Best Picture winners since I’ve been closely following the Oscars (starting with Titanic 21 years ago), none besides Green Book has provoked a more diverse and contradictory set of reactions within myself. There have been better winners, and there have been worse winners, but none have given me more confusing emotions.

Upon my initial viewing of the (mis)adventures of Tony Lip and Don Shirley, I found myself as crowd-pleased as the film’s biggest proponents had promised. But the contingent of critics who considered Green Book antiquated or even regressive made some good points that I felt obligated to reckon with. But I had the nagging sense that they were missing the mark just a bit. It felt worth defending, but in a tricky way I was not quite sure how best to explain. And then I read Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s take in The Hollywood Reporter, and it started to click.

One particular point in that piece stood out, in which the former NBA great and astute cultural critic noted that black people “know that after viewing the movie, some white people will be self-congratulatory and dismissive by saying, ‘Well, at least it’s not like that anymore.’ But others will be moved to see how those events in history have shaped our current challenges.” Unsurprisingly enough, a common criticism of Green Book I’ve seen is that it caters to supposedly progressive white people who like to think that stories like this prove that racism has been more or less “solved.” And maybe there are people like that, but those missing the point shouldn’t strip the film of what merits it does have.

Where Green Book most excels is in its portrayal of a burgeoning friendship. This is a story setup that we as a species keep returning to because it has proven to be consistently fruitful. Tony and Don are two very different men who find themselves forced to spend long periods of time together in tight spaces. Even if you take away the racial component, their backgrounds are still miles apart (although, to be sure, the black/white divide does play a part in their other differences). Tony is family-oriented, vulgar, and unignorable, while Don is isolated, cultured, and preeminently even-keeled. Green Book does not in any way solve racism, but it is not trying to be so ambitious as to eradicate or even merely least tackle something so systemic. It is a modest movie: old-fashioned, but not regressive.

Amidst all the awards-season hubbub, I had forgotten what I had truly liked about Green Book, so I revisited my original review, where I was a little surprised to be reminded that what I most connected to was Tony Lip’s insatiable appetite. For my money, the best moments are when he wins a bet by eating a bunch of hot dogs and, of course, when he folds an entire pizza in half to bite into the whole thing. This was clearly a passion project for Tony Lip’s real life son, Nick Vallelonga, one of the screenwriters and producers. And as far as I can tell, his motivation was nothing so high-minded as to fix what ails society, but rather, merely to tell his dad’s story, and spread the joie de vivre inherent in that tale.

But as much as I enjoyed Green Book, it was a dispiriting Best Picture selection. As a film that succeeded at a modest goal, its win was like receiving an award for “best high school athlete” at the Olympics (or maybe the inverse of that). As an old-fashioned throwback, it does not really push cinema forward in any way. Academy voters are left to themselves to decide what criteria constitutes the best movie of the year, so I do not know how many of them are using the “push cinema forward” metric, but I would highly recommend that they use it. But that lack of cinematic innovation is not really why it didn’t deserve to win, and here we come to the other, perhaps more important, metric for determining the Best Picture, which is: which of the nominated films has the best message? According to its campaign, Green Book‘s message was a tribute to the power of coming together despite our differences in these divisive times, which understandably rang hollow to a lot of people. When it came to racial commentary, this was by no means the most astute film of 2018, or even the most astute Best Picture nominee of 2018.

But what if the narrative had been different? What if Green Book‘s team had instead been pushing its message of a man with a boundless appetite and a man with a more restrained appetite learning from each other? If each campaign stop had focused around the hot dogs and the pizza and and the fried chicken, I doubt that its Oscar chances would have been as strong as they were, but its merits would have been advertised more accurately. And thus a more delicious sort of chaos would have reigned. So to all you Oscar campaigners, I say: embrace the crudeness now and forevermore!

The 2018 Jeff Malone Academy Awards

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CREDIT: Paramount Pictures/Skydance

If I were in charge of unilaterally selecting the Oscars, here is who would be selected. Nominees are listed alphabetically, winners in bold.

Best Picture
The Endless
First Reformed
Sorry to Bother You

Best Director
Justin Benson and Aaron Moorhead, The Endless
Alex Garland, Annihilation
Steve McQueen, Widows
Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You
Paul Schrader, First Reformed


91st Oscar Predictions/Preferences

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CREDIT: Carlos Somonte/Netflix

Here’s my final rundown of who I will think will be taking home the little gold men on Sunday, February 24, 2019, and whom I would vote for if I had a ballot.

Best Picture

Prediction: Roma is tied for the most nominations, and it’s won the most noteworthy precursor awards.
Preference: BlacKkKlansman is absolutely electric, a quality that is all too rare in Best Picture winners.

Best Director

Prediction: Expect Alfonso Cuarón to continue the recent Mexican dominance in this category.
Preference: A win for Spike Lee would have lifetime achievement oomph, and it would also be deserved in particular for BlacKkKlansman.


Kevin Hart Doesn’t Know How the Internet Works

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After watching Kevin Hart’s appearance on Ellen on Friday, I’m not sure if he should host the Oscars, but I am sure about one thing: for someone who uses social media as prolifically as he does, he really doesn’t know how the Internet works. He is astounded by how much effort someone put in to dig up something he tweeted eight years ago. But if you know what tweet you’re looking for, it takes about five seconds to locate it. Hart seems to think it’s like finding a needle in a haystack, but when you can ask your favorite digital assistant to find that needle for you, it’s not as difficult as it’s historically been.

I’ll be generous and give Kevin Hart the benefit of the doubt and believe that he really has changed and that he is sincerely sorry for his past homophobic remarks. His apologies have perhaps left something to be desired, but maybe he is having trouble expressing himself (otherwise-decent people often do when asked to atone for their mistakes). The trouble is that he is misunderstanding the context. He has framed himself the victim, thinking that trolls are out to ruin his career. But most of the coverage I’ve seen in response to him being offered the Oscar hosting gig has been LGBTQ people and their allies expressing concern, not vindictiveness. Hart may be frustrated that he is being asked to apologize for something he’s already apologized for, but there are probably people who never heard his original apology in the first place (or found it lacking).

Hart is encouraging people to move on, which is a good idea, so long as the correct lessons have been learned. It looks likely that Hart has decided for good not to host.He is worried that his presence will be a distraction, but there could’ve been (and still could be!) an opportunity for him to change the narrative. Don’t ignore the controversy: address it, and then move into a more celebratory, more inclusive direction. If Hart somehow changes his mind again, he could spend part of his opening monologue spotlighting notable queer films of the past year, invite up-and-coming queer filmmakers to be presenters, and donate part of the money he makes from the gig to LGBTQ-focused charities. Marginalized people could always use more allies and cheerleaders.

The 2017 Jeff Malone Academy Awards

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CREDIT: Amazon Studios

If I were in charge of unilaterally selecting the Oscars, here is who would be selected. Nominees are listed alphabetically, winners in bold.

Best Picture
The Big Sick
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Lady Macbeth
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Darren Aronofsky, mother!
Luc Besson, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
Patty Jenkins, Wonder Woman
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
William Oldroyd, Lady Macbeth
Michael Showalter, The Big Sick

Lead Actor
Michael Fassbender, Alien: Covenant
Hugh Jackman, Logan
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
James McAvoy, Split
Algee Smith, Detroit

Lead Actress
Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman
Aubrey Plaza, Ingrid Goes West
Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Taylor Schilling, Take Me

Supporting Actor
Jake Gyllenhaal, Okja
Caleb Landry Jones, Get Out
Ray Romano, The Big Sick
Adam Sandler, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)
Patrick Stewart, Logan

Supporting Actress
Betty Gabriel, Get Out
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Allison Williams, Get Out

Adapted Screenplay
Dante Harper, Michael Green, John Logan, Jack Paglen, Alien: Covenant
Alice Birch, Lady Macbeth
Scott Frank, Michael Green, James Mangold, Logan
Luc Besson, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg, Zack Snyder, Wonder Woman

Original Screenplay
Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon, The Big Sick
Kevin Costello and Kyle Mooney, Brigsby Bear
Steven Rogers, I, Tonya
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Animated Feature
The LEGO Batman Movie
The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Bojan Bazelli, A Cure for Wellness
Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk
Ari Wegner, Lady Macbeth
Darius Khondji, The Lost City of Z
Steve Yedlin, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Costume Design
Natalie O’Brien, The Bad Batch
Stacey Battat, The Beguiled
Jennifer Johnson, I, Tonya
Holly Waddington, Lady Macbeth
Olivier Bériot, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Film Editing
Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos, Baby Driver
Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Gregory Plotkin, Happy Death Day
Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya
Jennifer Lame, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Makeup and Hairstyling
Alien: Covenant
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Original Score
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Oneohtrix Point Never, Good Time
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Original Song
“Cut to the Feeling,” written by Carly Rae Jepsen, Leap!
“Mystery of Love,” written by Sufjan Stevens, Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me,” written by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Coco
“Tuff Love,” written by Geremy Jasper, Patti Cake$

Production Design
Alien: Covenant
Blade Runner 2049
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
War for the Planet of the Apes

I didn’t watch enough documentaries this year.

Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
The Square

Animated Short
Garden Party

Live Action Short
The Eleven O’Clock

Documentary Short Subject

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