Jmunney's Blog

Presently, the 2011 Academy Awards are looking significantly more unpredictable than the 2010 edition.  At this point last year, I could have confidently said that pre-holiday season releases The Social Network, Inception, and Toy Story 3 were locks for Best Picture nominations.  This year, I am not sure if any movie released before November will be nominated; most of the likely nominees are either yet to be released or still in limited release.  Come February, the major categories may prove to be just as easy to call as they were last time, but at the moment, this race could go in any number of directions.  (Predictions are listed in order of most likely to least likely to be nominated.)

Best Picture
The Academy changed the nominating rules for Best Picture again, so this year, anywhere between 5 and 10 films will be nominated.  I’m going to call it in the middle and go with 7.  Entertainment Weekly and other outlets are calling War Horse a sure thing, but I’m not necessarily buying it even as a contender, at least not yet.  The Artist, despite its superficial disadvantages, could emerge the favorite, but I think The Descendants has the best mix of ingredients (previously nominated and really well-respected director, one of the biggest stars in the world, breakthrough young actress).  At least one mainstream, crowd-pleasing box office success from summer or earlier could likely sneak in, probably The Help and maybe even Harry Potter.
The Descendants
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Help
War Horse
Hugo

Director
With the Best Picture picture as chaotic as it is, it is theoretically possible that this could be one of those years when the Best Director winner is not the director of the Best Picture winner.  But no one director (except maybe Terrence Malick) seems to be that much more of a contender than his (no directing ladies seem to be in contention this year) film, so Payne and Hazanvicius are necessarily then at the top.
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Martin Scorcese, Hugo

Actor
One of the biggest stars of the country is the front-runner, and that country is … France.  Dujardin, veteran of the French spy spoof series OSS 117, is the favorite over Clooney and Pitt.  Ryan Gosling can make it on only if voters feel compelled by his overall great year.
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame

Actress
Who says there are no good roles for women over 40?  There are three ladies who have reached that milestone (Glenn Close, Meryl Streep, Viola Davis) and are defiantly the front-runners in this category, and they might be joined by a fourth (Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin).  Beyond Close/Streep/Davis, this category could go in a number of different directions.  I’m betting on the presence of a young newcomer à la Jennifer Lawrence last year, likely either Elizabeth Olsen or Felicity Jones (Like Crazy).  Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), and Charlize Theron (Young Adult) must also have their due considerations.
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Viola Davis, The Help
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Supporting Actor
This is the most wide-open I can ever remember this category being.  The favorite may very well be a gay eightysomething, and a motion capture simian performance may actually be nominated.  Don’t bet the house on these predictions, unless you like to live life dangerously.
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Albert Brooks, Drive
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Kevin Spacey, Margin Call

Supporting Actress
Spencer and Chastain (in the best of her 6 performances from 2011) are obvious.  Woodley is too, especially considering this category’s reputation as the ingenue category.  McCarthy has a good chance, as comedic roles stand a chance in the supporting field.  And I’ll round it out with Janet McTeer, because I hear things.  But don’t fall asleep on Bérénice Bejo (The Artist).
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs