The 2012 MTV Video Music Awards are this Thursday, September 6, 8 PM (7 Central).  Generally, I think I have a good sense of what will win at major entertainment awards shows, but last year, I correctly predicted 2 out of 14 VMA categories.  So, this year I’m not going to spend much time trying to figure out this notoriously hard to crack festivity.  Just a quick will win/should win for each category.

Video of the Year
Drake ft. Rihanna – “Take Care”
Gotye ft. Kimbra – “Somebody That I Used to Know”
M.I.A. – “Bad Girls”
Katy Perry – “Wide Awake”
Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris – “We Found Love”
Will Win/Should Win: “Somebody That I Used to Know”

Best Male Video
Justin Bieber — “Boyfriend”
Chris Brown — “Turn Up the Music”
Drake ft. Rihanna — “Take Care”
Frank Ocean — “Swim Good”
Usher — “Climax”
Will Win: “Boyfriend”
Should Win: “Take Care”

Best Female Video
 Beyoncé — “Love on Top”
Selena Gomez & the Scene — “Love You Like a Love Song”
Nicki Minaj — “Starships”
Katy Perry — “Part of Me”
Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris — “We Found Love”
Will Win: “Part of Me”
Should Win: “Love You Like a Love Song”

Best New Artist
 fun. – ft. Janelle Monáe — “We Are Young”
Carly Rae Jepsen — “Call Me Maybe”
Frank Ocean — “Swim Good”
One Direction — “What Makes You Beautiful”
The Wanted — “Glad You Came”
Will Win: “Call Me Maybe” (or “What Makes You Beautiful”)
Should Win: “Call Me Maybe”

Best Pop Video
Justin Bieber — “Boyfriend”
fun. ft. Janelle Monáe — “We Are Young”
Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa — “Payphone”
One Direction — “What Makes You Beautiful”
Rihanna ft. Calvin Harris — “We Found Love”
Will Win: “Boyfriend”
Should Win: “We Found Love”

Best Rock Video
The Black Keys — “Lonely Boy”
Coldplay — “Paradise”
Imagine Dragons — “It’s Time”
Linkin Park — “Burn It Down”
Jack White — “Sixteen Saltines”
Will Win/Should Win: “Lonely Boy”

Best Hip-Hop Video
Childish Gambino — “Heartbeat”
Drake ft. Lil Wayne — “HYFR”
Jay-Z and Kanye West — “Paris”
Nicki Minaj ft. 2 Chainz — “Beez in the Trap”
Kanye West ft. Pusha T, Big Sean and 2 Chainz — “Mercy”
Will Win: “Paris”
Should Win: “Paris” (I guess)

Best Electronic Dance Music Video
Avicii — “Levels”
Duck Sauce — “Big Bad Wolf”
Calvin Harris — “Feel So Close”
Skrillex — “First of the Year (Equinox)’
Martin Solveig — “The Night Out”
Will Win: “First of the Year (Equinox)”
Should Win: “Big Bad Wolf”

And now we come to the “professional” categories, in which there is even less of a point in attempting predictions, so I’ll just run through the should win’s for these categories.

Best Director
Coldplay ft. Rihanna — “Princess of China” (Director: Adria Petty and Alan Bibby)
Duck Sauce — “Big Bad Wolf” (Director: Keith Schofield)
Jay-Z and Kanye West ft. Otis Redding — “Otis” (Director: Spike Jonze)
M.I.A. — “Bad Girls” (Director: Romain Gavras)
Frank Ocean — “Swim Good” (Director: Nabil Elderkin)
Should Win: Keith Schofield, “Big Bad Wolf”

Best Choreography
Avicii — “Levels” (Choreographers: Richy Greenfield and Petro Papahadjopoulos)
Beyoncé — “Countdown” (Choreographers: Danielle Polanco, Frank Gatson Jr., Beyoncé and Anne Teresa De Keersmaeker)
Chris Brown — “Turn Up the Music” (Choreographer: Anwar “Flii” Burton)
Jennifer Lopez ft. Pitbull — “Dance Again” (Choreographer: JR Taylor)
Rihanna — “Where Have You Been” (Choreographer: Hi-Hat)
Should Win: “Levels”

Best Visual Effects
David Guetta ft. Nicki Minaj — “Turn Me On” (Visual Effects: Alex Frisch, Joe Harkins, Scott Metzger and Vico Sharabani)
Linkin Park — “Burn It Down” (Visual Effects: Ghost Town Media)
Katy Perry — “Wide Awake” (Visual Effects: Ingenuity Engine)
Rihanna — “Where Have You Been” (Visual Effects: BAKED FX)
Skrillex — “First of the Year (Equinox)” (Visual Effects: Deka Brothers and Tony “Truand” Datis)
Should Win: “Turn Me On”

Best Art Direction
Lana Del Rey — “Born to Die” (Art Directors: Anna Brun and Audrey Malecot)
Drake ft. Rihanna — “Take Care” (Art Director: Charles Infante)
Of Monsters and Men — “Little Talks” (Art Director: Mihai Wilson)
Katy Perry — “Wide Awake” (Art Director: Benji Bamps)
Regina Spektor — “All the Rowboats” (Art Director: Anthony Henderson)
Should Win: “Born to Die”

Best Editing
A$AP Rocky — “Goldie” (Editor: Samantha Lecca)
Beyoncé — “Countdown” (Editors: Alexander Hammer and Jeremiah Shuff)
Gotye ft. Kimbra — “Somebody That I Used to Know” (Editor: Natasha Pincus)
Jay-Z and Kanye West — “Niggas in Paris” (Editors: Alexander Hammer, Peter Johnson and Derek Lee)
Kanye West ft Pusha T, Big Sean and 2 Chainz — “Mercy” (Editor: Eric Greenburg)
Should Win: “Somebody That I Used to Know”

Best Cinematography
Adele — “Someone Like You” (Director of Photography: David Johnson)
Coldplay ft. Rihanna — “Princess of China” (Director of Photography: Stéphane Vallée)
Lana Del Rey — “Born to Die” (Director of Photography: André Chemetoff)
Drake ft. Rihanna — “Take Care” (Director of Photography: Kasper Tuxen)
M.I.A. — “Bad Girls” (Director of Photography: André Chemetoff)
Should Win: “Bad Girls”

Best Video with a Message
Kelly Clarkson — “Dark Side”
Gym Class Heroes ft. Ryan Tedder — “The Fighter”
K’naan ft. Nelly Furtado — “Is Anybody Out There?”
Lil Wayne — “How to Love”
Demi Lovato — “Skyscraper”
Rise Against — “Ballad of Hollis Brown”
Will Win: “Skyscraper”
Should Win: “Ballad of Hollis Brown”

Best Latino Artist
Juanes
Jennifer Lopez
Pitbull
Romeo Santos
Wisin & Yandel
Will Win: ???
Should Win: ???