Oscar Projections Addendum

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A bit of a revision to my Oscar post from yesterday.  Regarding Visual Effects, I completely forgot to consider Tron: Legacy, which could very well blow away the two contenders that I mentioned – Hereafter and Inception.  As for Makeup, I really don’t know if Inception is the top contender or not (or if it is even a contender at all).  All I had to go on for this category was what awardsdaily.com – one of my main sources for Oscar news – had to offer, and according to the folks over there, only Inception and Shutter Island have been targeted as Makeup contenders so far.

Upcoming Blog Posts

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Loyal readers of Jmunney’s Blog, I feel that I ought to update you on what topics I am planning to blog on in the near future.  I do this so that you have the chance to offer me advice on what direction I should take these posts and so that I have the opportunity to hear this advice.  Also, if there are any pop cultural topics that I have not thought of that you would like to hear my musings on, let me know.

Near Future Posts
-Reconsidering Colin Quinn, Weekend Update Anchor
-Year-End Roundup:
  -Best Movies of 2010
  -Best in Music 2010 (Best Songs of the Year, Most Awesomely Bad Song(s) of the Year, Best Music Videos of the Year)
  (Any other year-end roundup topics I should cover?)

Undetermined Future Posts, Part 1: Some Research Necessary
TV Shows That Entertainment Weekly Has Led Me to Believe are the Best Show Ever
-My Favorite Songs of All Time
-Good Songs That I Used to Think Were Bad
-My Favorite Linkin Park Songs to Sing
-My Celebrity Crushes
-Moments from Working at the Movie Theatre That Have Surprised Me
-The Best Bands Without Any Songs in Rock Band/Guitar Hero

Undetermined Future Posts, Part 2: Major Research Necessary
-The Best Lost Scenes
-The Best Music Videos of the (Aught) Decade
-Recaps of Every SNL Season

Jmunney’s Early 2010 Oscar Projections

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The big Academy Awards prognosticators have already switched it into high gear in predicting the nominations for the 83rd Academy Awards, which will take place on ABC the night of Sunday, February 27, 2011, with co-hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway (unusual choices, but judging by their performances as hosts of Saturday Night Live, I think that they will be able to handle the proceedings).  So I figured it is time for me to add my early perspective.  Here are my predictions for the nominees in the six major categories (predicted winners are in bold):

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Don’t count out Inception, the movie everyone was talking about this summer, and things could change completely once The King’s Speech goes into wide release, but right now, Social Network, the best-reviewed movie of the year, is the front-runner.
Also with a chance: Winter’s Bone

Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Fincher has the edge over Nolan in a battle between two directors who should have been nominated more often than they have been (this’ll be Fincher’s second, Nolan’s first).

Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception
Michael Douglas, Solitary Man
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
The surest bet of the awards season appears to be Firth gobbling up every major lead acting accolade.
Also with a chance: Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Winter’s Bone is too small, and the Kids leads may cancel each other out, which moves victory to Portman’s direction.
Also with a chance: Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Armie Hammer, The Social Network
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
In a crowded field, the best bet is the new Peter Parker for being, as Entertainment Weekly Oscar Watcher Dave Karger calls him, “the … moral center” of The Social Network.
Also with a chance: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Supporting Actress
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
This category is a little difficult, as none of my picks are in movies that are yet in wide release.  This could come down to a battle of scary moms (Hershey, Leo) versus the Queen Mum (Bonham Carter), but this category’s history of awarding young newcomers bodes well for 13-year-old Hailee Steinfeld.
Also with a chance: Amy Adams, The Fighter

As for the other categories…

Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin (Social Network) is one of the most beloved screenwriters in the biz today.

Original Screenplay
The speechwriting of David Seidler (The King’s Speech) or the layered puzzle from Christopher Nolan (Inception)?  This looks about dead even right now, so I’ll go with Nolan.

Editing
Unless The Social Network wins everything, Lee Smith ought to be recognized for keeping everything well-timed and in the right place for Inception.

Cinematography
How about Christopher Nolan standby Wally Pfister (Inception) picking up his first win?

Animated Feature
Too bad for How to Train Your Dragon, Despicable Me, and Tangled that they were released the same year as Toy Story 3.

Art Direction
With a lack of any viable colorful nominees, we must look for something expansive and chalk up another victory for Inception.

Costume Design
When nothing else sticks out, go period – The King’s Speech.

Documentary Feature
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and Facebook mystery Catfish were surprisngly left off the list of semifinalists, but Inside Job, the tale of the financial meltdown, was always going to be the favorite, with Waiting for “Superman” providing some competition.

Foreign Language Film
Lead Actor candidate Javier Bardem could propel Mexico’s Biutufil to a win.

Makeup
Inception, apparently.

Original Score
If you’re looking for iconic, look no further than Hans Zimmer’s bludgeoning work for Inception, but don’t count out Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor’s dark atmospherics in The Social Network.

Song
I’ve got “The Clap” from Get Him to the Greek.

Sound Mixing and Editing
Inception should sweep up the technical categories.

Visual Effects
Inception will have a chance if old-fashioned camera tricks are considered as much as CGI; otherwise, Hereafter should win on the strength of the tidal wave sequence.

Animated Short
Probably something from Pixar.  Maybe Day and Night (not to be confused with Knight and Day), which played in theatres before Toy Story 3. 

Documentary Short
Maybe something about China.

Live-Action Short
Maybe something about somebody with cancer.

The Weather Channel

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I frequently find myself watching the Weather Channel.  I come for the updates on current and upcoming conditions, but I stay for the music.  Typically, it is just that elevator music-style jazz, but occasionally I am treated to something like the Rolling Stones’ “Can’t You Hear Me Knocking” or “Theme from Shaft.”  But even when one of those rarities is not playing, the light jazz is enough to keep me around in a soothing, meditative daze.  There is a slightly melancholy feel to it – a sense that this is Life, this is Truth.  At that moment, it feels like the 3-hour Doppler loop is all that needs to be known.  Everything for those 5 to 10 minutes is simple and comforting.

VH1 Top 20 Countdown – 11/27/10

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The Perry(i) sisters are 1-2!

Original Version
1. Katy Perry – Firework
2. Christina Perri – Jar of Hearts
3. Bruno Mars – Just the Way You Are
4. Rihanna – Only Girl (in the World)
5. P!nk – Raise Your Glass
6. Mike Posner – Please Don’t Go
7. Nicki Minaj – Right Thru Me
8. Michael Bublé – Hollywood
9. Linkin Park – Waiting for the End
10. Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj – Bottoms Up
11. Kings of Leon – Radioactive
12. Kid Rock – Born Free
13. Bruno Mars – Grenade
14. Sugarland – Stuck Like Glue
15. Maroon 5 – Give a Little More
16. The Script – For the First Time
17. Keri Hilson – Pretty Girl Rock
18. Nelly – Just a Dream
19. Grace Potter & the Nocturnals – Paris (Ooh La La)
20. Kanye West ft. Pusha T – Runaway

Jmunney’s Revision
1. Only Girl (in the World)
2. Radioactive
3. Runaway
4. Paris (Ooh La La)
5. Firework
6. Jar of Hearts
7. Waiting for the End
8. Just the Way You Are
9. Grenade
10. Please Don’t Go
11. Right Thru Me
12. For the First Time
13. Pretty Girl Rock
14. Born Free
15. Give a Little More
16. Just a Dream
17. Hollywood
18. Stuck Like Glue
19. Bottoms Up
20. Raise Your Glass

SNL Recap November 20, 2010: Anne Hathaway/Florence + the Machine

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As y’all probably heard, I’m sexy now.

Cold Opening – The Rachel Maddow Show
This is a step in the right direction for political cold openings. A parody of a cable news talk show is always an apt setup for a forum of craziness, although this time around the craziness was a little jumbled, with the Charlie Rangel parts not really having much to do with Boehner/Pelosi. B-

Anne Hathaway’s Monologue
Another monologue premised on the physical attractiveness of a female host and the possibility of nudity? It would have been funnier if Anne had not admitted to K-Wiig that she was not being serious with the guys. B-

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VH1 Top 20 Countdown – 11/20/10

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Songs that have appeared on both Top 20 Countdown and Cinema Sounds (the music that plays between movies at the theatre) this year: “Tighten Up,” “Mine,” and now, “Paris.”

Orignial Version
1. Christina Perri – “Jar of Hearts”
2. Bruno Mars – “Just the Way You Are”
3. Rihanna – “Only Girl (in the World)”
4. Katy Perry – “Firework”
5. Linkin Park – “Waiting for the End”
6. P!nk – “Raise Your Glass”
7. Mike Posner – “Please Don’t Go”
8. Kings of Leon – “Radioactive”
9. Michael Bublé – “Hollywood”
10. Nicki Minaj – “Right Thru Me”
11. Kid Rock – “Born Free”
12. Kanye West – “Runaway”
13. Sugarland – “Stuck Like Glue”
14. Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj – “Bottoms Up”
15. The Script – “For the First Time”
16. Travie McCoy – “Need You”
17. Bret Michaels – “Riding Against the Wind”
18. Keri Hilson – “Pretty Girl Rock”
19. Plain White T’s – “Rhythm of Love”
20. Grace Potter & the Nocturnals – “Paris (Ooh La La)”

Jmunney’s Revision
1. Only Girl (in the World)
2. Radioactive
3. Runaway
4. Paris (Ooh La La)
5. Firework
6. Jar of Hearts
7. Waiting for the End
8. Just the Way You Are
9. For the First Time
10. Pretty Girl Rock
11. Please Don’t Go
12. Need You
13. Born Free
14. Right Thru Me
15. Hollywood
16. Stuck Like Glue
17. Bottoms Up
18. Raise Your Glass
19. Rhythm of Love
20. Riding Against the Wind

SNL Recap November 13, 2010: Scarlett Johansson/Arcade Fire

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Middle East: quit goofing around!

Cold Opening – G20 Press Conference
This was so identical to last year’s Obama/Hu Jintao press conference sketch that I almost thought I was watching a rerun. Logically, I knew that that could not be true. I knew that I was watching a new episode and that Bill Hader had not played Hu in the last sketch, but perception is not always completely rational. Anyway, last year’s sketch was strongly decent; this one suffered from being exactly the same. B-

Scarlett Johansson’s Monologue
The premise of ScarJo keeping it classy was promising enough.  I guess.  Maybe.  Abby’s Ke$ha was right on, but I don’t think she really fit in this bit, because I don’t think Ke$ha particularly cares if she appears classy or not. B-

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VH1 Top 20 Countdown – 11/13/10

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Taylor and Daughtry finally fall off the list, and with Rihanna at the top, my number 1 matches up with the original number 1 for the first time since I have been making my revisions (though it should have also matched up when “Teenage Dream” took the lead).

Original Version
1. Rihanna – “Only Girl (in the World)”
2. Bruno Mars – “Just the Way You Are”
3. Usher ft. Pitbull – “DJ Got Us Fallin’ in Love”
4. Christina Perri – “Jar of Hearts”
5. Flo Rida ft. David Guetta – “Club Can’t Handle Me”
6. Linkin Park – “Waiting for the End”
7. Kings of Leon – “Radioactive”
8. Katy Perry – “Firework”
9. 30 Seconds to Mars – “Closer to the Edge”
10. P!nk – “Raise Your Glass”
11. Mike Posner – “Please Don’t Go”
12. Trey Songz ft. Nicki Minaj – “Bottoms Up”
13. Michael Bublé – “Hollywood”
14. Kanye West – “Runaway”
15. Plain White T’s – “Rhythm of Love”
16. Kid Rock – “Born Free”
17. Sugarland – “Stuck Like Glue”
18. Nicki Minaj – “Right Thru Me”
19. Bret Michaels – “Riding Against the Wind”
20. Travie McCoy – “Need You”

Jmunney’s Revision
1. Only Girl (in the World)
2. Radioactive
3. Runaway
4. Firework
5. Closer to the Edge
6. Jar of Hearts
7. Waiting for the End
8. Just the Way You Are
9. Please Don’t Go
10. Need You
11. Club Can’t Handle Me
12. Born Free
13. DJ Got Us Fallin’ in Love
14. Hollywood
15. Stuck Like Glue
16. Right Thru Me
17. Bottoms Up
18. Raise Your Glass
19. Rhythm of Love
20. Riding Against the Wind

The Current State of Politics on Saturday Night Live

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A few weeks ago I was watching an episode of SNL from the year 200o on VH1.  That one episode featured all of the  following sketches: the Presidential Couple (the cold opening in which Bush and Gore declare that they are both going to be president, in an Odd Couple-type scenario), Al Gore’s discussion of the Florida ballot (“the single most confusing … document ever produced”), and the CBS Sports update from Dan Rather  (in which NBA game winners were projected in the style of election coverage).  These were three of the most classic sketches inspired by the 2000 election.  And they all originally appeared on the same episode!

When I consider the state of politics on SNL in 2010, my conclusion is that that would never happen now.  To be fair, 2000 may have been the most fruitful and serendipitous year for American political comedy ever.  SNL benefited from having all-time classic impressions of two perpetually memorable candidates, and the recount ensured that election-themed sketches could last for nearly forever.

2010 only featured a midterm election, so I have not expected anything near the level of 2000.  But this year has not been lacking for characters.  Christine O’Donnell was a bit of a fringe candidate, but that hardly meant that she did not provide ample material for parody.  Unfortunately, SNL simply went through the motions and only took on the “I’m not a witch” angle.  O’Donnell’s botched understanding of the Constitution could very well have led to something in the vein of Katie Couric interviewing Sarah Palin.  The only truly memorable election-centric moment this year was Kenan’s gonzo take on “The Rent is Too Damn High” candidate Jimmy McMillan (and that was only an Update bit).

This post is not meant to bemoan the current state of SNL in its entirety.  This is a diversely enjoyable cast with some promising newcomers.  The relative lack of political edginess is most likely due to a (not necessarily bad) change of styles.  The buzz about SNL is dominated by the digital shorts, often rightfully so.  Accordingly, the show has taken on a more surreal, rather than satirical, bent.  Both of these styles are enjoyed by me, and many others, and SNL has been adept at both for most of the show’s history.  But SNL has also always seemed to have a naturalness when it comes to political humor- more character than idea-driven, and thus, more parodic than satirical.  Nonetheless, it is a good niche that SNL has filled well, but that naturalness seems to be lacking today.  I do not demand that SNL be dominated by p0litics, nor do I even demand that each episode features at least one political sketch (and if it  is not working, don’t force a message from the president cold opening).  I merely expect that the writers and cast know how to handle an opportunity like Christine O’Donnell when it is placed squarely in their laps.

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