The big Academy Awards prognosticators have already switched it into high gear in predicting the nominations for the 83rd Academy Awards, which will take place on ABC the night of Sunday, February 27, 2011, with co-hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway (unusual choices, but judging by their performances as hosts of Saturday Night Live, I think that they will be able to handle the proceedings). So I figured it is time for me to add my early perspective. Here are my predictions for the nominees in the six major categories (predicted winners are in bold):
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Don’t count out Inception, the movie everyone was talking about this summer, and things could change completely once The King’s Speech goes into wide release, but right now, Social Network, the best-reviewed movie of the year, is the front-runner.
Also with a chance: Winter’s Bone
Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Fincher has the edge over Nolan in a battle between two directors who should have been nominated more often than they have been (this’ll be Fincher’s second, Nolan’s first).
Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception
Michael Douglas, Solitary Man
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
The surest bet of the awards season appears to be Firth gobbling up every major lead acting accolade.
Also with a chance: Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Winter’s Bone is too small, and the Kids leads may cancel each other out, which moves victory to Portman’s direction.
Also with a chance: Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Armie Hammer, The Social Network
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
In a crowded field, the best bet is the new Peter Parker for being, as Entertainment Weekly Oscar Watcher Dave Karger calls him, “the … moral center” of The Social Network.
Also with a chance: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Supporting Actress
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
This category is a little difficult, as none of my picks are in movies that are yet in wide release. This could come down to a battle of scary moms (Hershey, Leo) versus the Queen Mum (Bonham Carter), but this category’s history of awarding young newcomers bodes well for 13-year-old Hailee Steinfeld.
Also with a chance: Amy Adams, The Fighter
As for the other categories…
Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin (Social Network) is one of the most beloved screenwriters in the biz today.
Original Screenplay
The speechwriting of David Seidler (The King’s Speech) or the layered puzzle from Christopher Nolan (Inception)? This looks about dead even right now, so I’ll go with Nolan.
Editing
Unless The Social Network wins everything, Lee Smith ought to be recognized for keeping everything well-timed and in the right place for Inception.
Cinematography
How about Christopher Nolan standby Wally Pfister (Inception) picking up his first win?
Animated Feature
Too bad for How to Train Your Dragon, Despicable Me, and Tangled that they were released the same year as Toy Story 3.
Art Direction
With a lack of any viable colorful nominees, we must look for something expansive and chalk up another victory for Inception.
Costume Design
When nothing else sticks out, go period – The King’s Speech.
Documentary Feature
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and Facebook mystery Catfish were surprisngly left off the list of semifinalists, but Inside Job, the tale of the financial meltdown, was always going to be the favorite, with Waiting for “Superman” providing some competition.
Foreign Language Film
Lead Actor candidate Javier Bardem could propel Mexico’s Biutufil to a win.
Makeup
Inception, apparently.
Original Score
If you’re looking for iconic, look no further than Hans Zimmer’s bludgeoning work for Inception, but don’t count out Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor’s dark atmospherics in The Social Network.
Song
I’ve got “The Clap” from Get Him to the Greek.
Sound Mixing and Editing
Inception should sweep up the technical categories.
Visual Effects
Inception will have a chance if old-fashioned camera tricks are considered as much as CGI; otherwise, Hereafter should win on the strength of the tidal wave sequence.
Animated Short
Probably something from Pixar. Maybe Day and Night (not to be confused with Knight and Day), which played in theatres before Toy Story 3.
Documentary Short
Maybe something about China.
Live-Action Short
Maybe something about somebody with cancer.
