The 2011 MTV Movie Awards are happening this upcoming Sunday, June 5th.  (Jason Sudeikis is the host – he can be funny.)  For those of you who haven’t watched the Golden Popcorn-fest in about ten years, you haven’t missed much.  It isn’t quite as cool as it used it to be in the nineties, back when Jim Carrey dressed as a Foghat-obsessed biker and the film parodies were actually clever and not just filled with as many references as possible.  (Remember Armagedd’N Sync?)  But now, thanks to the fact that people can vote as many times as they want, and considering that teenage girls are the only ones inclined to take seriously MTV awards shows and the only ones inclined to vote 100 times a day, the Movie Awards have been commandeered by the Twilight crowd.  The first two Twilight films won Best Movie the past two years, and odds are that Eclipse will make it three in a row.  Chances are also that it will win every other category in which it is nominated, as the only category in which it was nominated the last two years that it did not also win was Best Song 2 years ago (“The Climb” from Hannah Montana beat out Paramore’s “Decode” – the one instance in which Twilight actually deserved to win).  Here are the categories in which Eclipse has at least one nomination, listed in order from safest bet for Twilight to best chance that something else may actually win:

(For those of you despairing over the current all-Twilight, all the time nature of the show, remember that the Lord of the Rings trilogy won Best Movie three years in a row at the beginning of the century.)

Best Movie
If 2 of the 3 highest grossing (domestic) movies of all time (The Dark KnightAvatar) couldn’t beat Twilight, then what chance is there for Inception, merely the 41st-highest grossing (domestic) earner of all time?

Best Male Performance
Four of the nominees are the same as last year.  So we can bank on R Pattz finishing ahead of Taylor, Dan Rad, and Zac again.  So is there anyone out there who thinks that Jesse Eisenberg is so much bigger than Channing Tatum in the eyes of the MTV crowd that he can close the gap on R Pattz?  Anyone?

Breakthrough Performance
Robert Pattinson won here two years, before he was allowed to be nominated in the Male Performance category.  Last year Anna Kendrick won forUp in the Air, but as she is also in the Twilight movies, that was essentially a proxy vote for Twilight.  Xavier Samuel has broken through the least of all of this year’s nominees, but he is also the only one from Twilight, and nobody else really sticks out.  Olivia Wilde could win if teenage and twentysomething men were voting, but that group generally doesn’t vote.  I am 23, and I did vote, but I didn’t vote for her.  Chloë Grace Moretz is deserving and was in a role that is MTV-friendly.  And young girls have won the Golden Popcorn in the past (Daveigh Chase for The Ring, Anna Chlumsky for My Girl), but they weren’t up against Twilight.

Best Female Performance
I find it slightly funny that Kristen Stewart has been winning this award lately because I think that Twihards are  more fans of Robert Pattinson and Taylor Lautner than they are of a girl that some of them are probably jealous of.  But who else are they going to vote for, I guess.  Could they vote for Natalie Portman, though?  She’s won every other award, but that doesn’t really mean anything when it comes to MTV.  (Just for the sake of pointing it out, Tom Hanks, in Philadelphia, is the only person to ever win an Oscar and an MTV Best Male or Female Performance Award for the same role.)

Best Kiss
Thanks to its unapologetically indulgent romance, this should be the the premiere category for Twilight.  So why do I not have this ranked as the safest bet for Eclipse?  Because of the buzzworthiness of its deserving competitor: Natalie and Mila in Black Swan.  MTV voters have a history of awarding same-sex kisses – same-sex kisses that are not merely sensationalistic but that actually have a purpose in the context of the movie.  It’s been four years since the last same-sex winner (Will Ferrell and Sacha Baron Cohen in Talladega Nights) and eleven years since the last girl-on-girl winner (Sarah Michelle Gellar and Selma Blair in Cruel Intentions, not including the three-way winner of Owen Wilson, Amy Smart, and Carmen Electra in Starsky & Hutch).  Since Eclipse is doubly nominated, there could be vote splitting, or Twihards may just vote for both.  But keep in mind that guys won’t be the only ones voting for Black Swan, as the attendance for that ballet pic was driven primarily by women, so ladies slightly older than the Twihard crowd may go the taboo route.

Best Fight
Twilight won here two years ago and then took off last year.  Its primary competition this year is Joseph Gordon-Levitt and the subconscious security’s hotel dance in Inception.  Twilight has already shot down a Christopher Nolan-directed fight (Batman vs. the Joker in The Dark Knight), but this Nolan-directed sequence may just have been the best movie scene of last year.  Again, that may not be enough to overcome the overwhelming nature of Twilight fandom, but awesome action does matter to the MTV crowd, as demonstrated by The Matrix dominating the 2000 MTV Awards.

And believe it or not, there are categories without any Twilight nominees.  Here’s how those might shake down:

Best Villain
Tom Felton
 won for Harry Potter last year, and he’s the favorite to win again, even though he’s not the primary villain and he only appeared in about ten minutes of this chapter.  Based on the fact that Tom was nominated over Ralph Fiennes, the older nominees (Christoph Waltz, Mickey Rourke, and Ned Beatty) may be too far out of the age bracket, but Leighton Meester may have a chance for an upset.

Best Comedic Performance
Easy A was the only one of the movies represented in this category that was a significant hit relative to expectations, so Emma Stone may just be the first ever female comedic winner.

Best Scared-As-S**t Performance
Inception is the only movie here that was actually a hit, but Ellen Page’s wasn’t exactly a primarily “scared” role.  So this will probably go to someone teenager-y like Minka Kelly in The Roommate (unless it goes to someone exorcism-y like Ashley Bell in The Last Exorcism).

Best Jaw Dropping Moment
There is nothing that stands out this year like a naked Ken Jeong last year.  So, inappropriately enough, this will probably go to Justin Bieber for the same reason that Twilight will win every other category.

Biggest Badass Star
I’m assuming that enough voters will agree that Alex Pettyfer has no business being in this category.  And Joseph Gordon-Levitt is not primarily thought of as a badass.  Though Chloë Grace Moretz may have a chance (I’m pulling for her – I mean, badass/Kick-Ass – hello!), this will likely come down to a battle between the star wattage of Smith vs. Downey.  MTV voters have a knack for rewarding sequel performances when they should have awarded – if anything – the initial chapter’s performance (Neve Campbell in Scream 2, Tom Cruise in Mission: Impossible II), so Robert Downey, Jr. is the one to beat.

Best Line from a Movie
I appreciate that Tom Hardy’s quip from Inception was nominated, but it is probably too cheeky for the MTV crowd.  This being a new category, I can’t say for sure how I see it shaking down, but I think – I hope – that the winner will have come from the pen of Aaron Sorkin, and this being MTV, I give the edge to Justin Timberlake (along with Andrew Garfield).