The 2012 MTV Movie Awards are airing on Sunday, June 3, at 9 PM (8 Central!), and guess what?  Twilight ain’t gonna dominate this year.  It’s simple math: even if it wins every category it’s nominated in, that will result in a grand total of two wins.  So, we’ve got a one-year reprieve from the Twilight awards, as this year the moonmen look to be dominated by the new based-on-a-YA-novel-series in town.  Katniss has taken her aim on the MTV generation, so here is a will win/should win breakdown of the 2012 Hunger Games awards.

Best Movie
Bridesmaids
The Hunger Games
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
The Help
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1
Will Win: Don’t let Twilight‘s general lack of nominations fool you – Twihards are still insane, so it may yet still pull out four in a row.  But most signs point to the newer and more unanimously beloved Hunger Games.
Should Win: Bridesmaids was seriously funny, and seriously meaningful.

Best Male Performance
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Josh Hutcherson, The Hunger Games
Daniel Radcliffe, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Channing Tatum, The Vow
Will Win: Josh Hutcherson – he was in The Hunger Games.
Should Win: An actor like Ryan Gosling only comes around once – if at all – a generation.

Best Female Performance
Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Emma Stone, Crazy, Stupid, Love
Emma Watson, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence is more beloved than Kristen Stewart ever was.
Should Win: Kristen Wiig wasn’t afraid to go to unflattering places.

Breakthrough Performance
Elle Fanning, Super 8
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Liam Hemsworth, The Hunger Games
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Will and Should Win: This category is not determined by viewer voting, so the award may just go to the most deserving nom – Melissa McCarthy, the name we couldn’t stop talking about in 2011, after not talking about her very much in 2010 or before.

Best Comedic Performance
Oliver Cooper, Project X
Zach Galifiankis, The Hangover Part II
Jonah Hill, 21 Jump Street
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Will and Should Win: MTV voters may or may not recognize Melissa McCarthy as the breakout act that she was, but I’m pretty sure they will recognize how funny she was.

Best Music
“Party Rock Anthem” by LMFAO, 21 Jump St
“A Real Hero” by College with Electric Youth, Drive
“The Devil is in the Details” by The Chemical Brothers, Hanna
“IMpossible” by Figurine, Like Crazy
“Pursuit of Happiness” by Kid Cudi (Steve Aoki remix), Project X
Will Win: “Party Rock Anthem” wins by default, as the most popular of these songs, in the most popular of the movies in this category, despite not being featured very prominently.
Should Win: “A Real Hero” – the synth-heavy, atmospheric soundtrack was the best part of Drive.

Best On-Screen Transformation
Elizabeth Banks, The Hunger Games
Johnny Depp, 21 Jump Street
Colin Farrell, Horrible Bosses
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Will and Should Win: Elizabeth Banks was hardly recognizable – and she was in The Hunger Games.

Best Gut-Wrenching Performance
Kristen Wiig, Maya Rudolph, Rose Byrne, Melissa McCarthy, Wendi McLendon-Covey, and Ellie Kemper, Bridesmaids
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Tom Cruise, Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Bryce Dallas Howard, The Help
Jonah Hill and Rob Riggle, 21 Jump Street
Will and Should Win: If voters saw Bridesmaids, that moment was etched upon their memories forever.

Best Kiss
Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, Crazy, Stupid, Love
Emma Watson and Rupert Grint, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson, The Hunger Games
Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1
Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams, The Vow
Will Win: In any other year, Gosling-Stone would be the easy favorite.  The long-awaited Watson-Grint kiss can’t be counted out either.  Lawrence-Hutcherson must be considered because it’s The Hunger Games and all.  But, of course, RPatz-KStew have won the last three years running.  But I’m going to go a bit out on a limb and say that Tatum-McAdams may pull this one off, having kissed in the love story to end all love stories.
Should Win: Gosling and Stone were very cute together.

Best Fight
Daniel Radcliffe vs. Ralph Fiennes, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson vs. Alexander Ludwig, The Hunger Games
Tom Cruise vs. Michael Nyqvist, Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill vs. the Kid Gang, 21 Jump Street
Joel Edgerton vs. Tom Hardy, Warrior
Will Win: The ultimate Harry Potter-Voldemort showdown may have a chance, as I’m not sure The Hunger Games will dominate completely, but let’s stick with the final tributes.
Should Win: You usually don’t feel for both combatants in fighting movies the way you did for Joel Edgerton and Tom Hardy.

Best Cast
Bridesmaids
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
The Help
The Hunger Games
21 Jump Street
Will Win: No way this doesn’t go to The Hunger Games.
Should Win: 2011 was the year of the woman, and Bridesmaids was no small contributor.

Best On-Screen Dirt Bag
Jennifer Aniston, Horrible Bosses
Oliver Cooper, Project X
Colin Farrell, Horrible Bosses
Jon Hamm, Bridesmaids
Bryce Dallas Howard, The Help
Will Win: Anna Kendrick won Breakthrough Performance a couple years back for Up in the Air, but it was really essentially for TwilightBryce Dallas Howard might benefit from Twihards, but she may have been good enough on her own anyway.
Should Win: Considering the context, Colin Farrell was unbelievably psychotic, and also entertaining.

Best Hero
Chris Evans, Captain America: The First Avenger
Chris Hemsworth, Thor
Jonah Hill, 21 Jump St.
Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games
Daniel Radcliffe, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Will Win: Voting in this category is done by tweeting.  I can’t tell you how that will affect the results, but I can tell you that Harry Potter currently has nearly twice as many votes as Katniss.
Should Win: Captain America, Thor, Katniss Everdeen, and Harry Potter are all iconic; Jenko – not so much. Chris Hemsworth as Thor gets my vote for being perfect for that role, while the others weren’t quite perfect.