I predict the winners of a lot of awards shows, but I usually don’t predict the Emmys.  For one, predicting the Emmys can be kind of boring.  The same shows are nominated every year, and the same shows win every year.  (Well, not quite.  Lead Actress in a Comedy is one category that actually has mixed it up each year for about a decade, with a newcomer winning each time most of the last several years.)  For another thing, I guess I’m so focused on taking it upon myself to recognize the shows that the Emmys continue to ignore, so I don’t have that much energy left to focus on predictions. I’ve already spoken my peace regarding who and what should be nominated.  Now, for the record, at least this year, I have decided to make it known who I think will win.

Drama SeriesMad Men
I keep hearing that Breaking Bad is the best show on TV, but Mad Men keeps winning the Emmy.  That could change this year, but I don’t think it will.   (Homeland or Downton Abbey could break through.)

Lead Actor, Drama: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
This category has the opposite issue of Drama Series.  People keep saying Jon Hamm needs an Emmy, but Bryan Cranston keeps winning.

Lead Actress, Drama: Claire Danes, Homeland
The strongest contender on a rookie show.

Supporting Actor, Drama: Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
This should be a contest between Giancarlo, last year’s winner (Peter Dinklage), and 2010’s winner (Aaron Paul, who wasn’t eligible last year).  The buzz seems to be in Giancarlo’s favor.

Supporting Actress, Drama: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
She’s Maggie Smith.

Comedy SeriesModern Family
Girls might have a chance for an upset?

Lead Actress, Comedy: Lena Dunham, Girls
Literally, any of the nominees here could win.  What’s in Lena’s favor?  She’s on HBO, and it’s her show’s first season.

Lead Actor, Comedy: Louis C.K., Louie
Jim Parsons and Alec Baldwin have already won enough, and it just feels like something has to give eventually regarding Louie.

Supporting Actress, Comedy: Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
This category could go in a number of directions, but I like Kathryn’s postmortem chances.  (Let’s not forget how she dominated the Guest category before upgrading to Supporting.)

Supporting Actor, Comedy: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Maybe Ed O’Neill will win if they want to give everyone on MF their turn to win, but besides that possibility, I don’t see anyone strong enough to knock off last year’s champ.

Also, I don’t know who will win Writing for Comedy, but I think Community actually has a legitimate chance!!!