The film festival season is in full swing, the buzz is buzzing, and the Oscar contenders are making themselves known.  Here’s what I’m seeing:

Best Picture: The Silver Linings Playbook – This seems to have just the right mix of well-respected director, strong performances, and heart-tugging subject matter.

Director: David O. Russell, The Silver Linings Playbook – I can maybe see a Best Picture/Best Director split this year if voters want to recognize P.T. Anderson for the scope of The Master, but the director of the Best Picture winner usually wins Best Director.

Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master – I think everyone is now realizing – if they hadn’t already – how Joaquin’s dedication to his craft pays off as well as it does.

Lead Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook – The only way I don’t see Jen being nominated here is if someone decides to give her a push for The Hunger Games as well and tries to present her Silver Linings role as Supporting (since actors can’t be nominated for multiple roles in the same category in the same year).

No clear favorite has emerged for either of the supporting acting categories yet.

Original Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell, The Silver Linings Playbook

Bradley Cooper is also a strong contender, which in turn means that The Silver Linings Playbook has a decent shot at being the first “Big 5” winner (Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Screenplay) since The Silence of the Lambs (and only the fourth overall). It is looking more than likely at this point that it will be the first since Million Dollar Baby to at least be nominated in each of the Big 5 categories.