The 2013 MTV Movie Awards (airing Sunday, April 14) have the most interesting batch of nominations they have had in at least five years, i.e., the last time Twilight wasn’t up for anything.  Apparently MTV brought in a legit nominating crew that picked movies that the MTV crowd likes and that are also actually pretty good.  I can guarantee – incredibly – that Twilight will not win Best Movie this year.  In fact, Breaking Dawn – Part 2 has only one nomination, and it probably won’t even win that one.  Anyway, here’s me guessing the winners and saying who I think deserves it.

Best Movie
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Silver Linings Playbook
Ted
Will Win: The Avengers was the highest grossing movie last year, and the only reason that wouldn’t make it the favorite would be if Twilight were nominated, and it isn’t.
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook was the third best, and nearly first best, movie of the year.

Male Performance
Ben Affleck, Argo
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Channing Tatum, Magic Mike
Will Win: Even guys like Channing Tatum these days.
Should Win: SLP may not be your typical MTV Movie Award movie, but it’s close enough, and Bradley Cooper’s a cool dude.

Female Performance
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Mila Kunis, Ted
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Rebel Wilson, Pitch Perfect
Will and Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence should become the first actress since Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich) to win the Moonman and the Oscar for the same role.

Scared-as-s**it Performance
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Alexandra Daddario, Texas Chainsaw 3D
Martin Freeman, The Hobbit
Jennifer Lawrence, House at the End of the Street
Suraj Sharma, Life of Pi
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence is really popular these days.
Should Win: None of these.  Alex and Jen weren’t in very good movies.  Jessica wasn’t scared in ZDT, and Martin and Suraj weren’t primarily scared in their roles.  They could have nominated Jessica for Mama, an actual horror movie.

Breakthrough Performance
Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables
Suraj Sharma, Life of Pi
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Rebel Wilson, Pitch Perfect
Will and Should Win: Rebel Wilson’s hosting the show, let’s not let her down.

On-Screen Duo
Robert Downey, Jr. and Mark Ruffalo, The Avengers
Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis, The Campaign
Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Mark Wahlberg and Seth MacFarlane, Ted
Will Win: J-Law’s overall popularity might be enough to push her and Bradley to the win, but I think Wahlberg and MacFarlane might have the edge, considering they best fit the traditional definition of a duo.
Should Win: It’s a little off-the-wall, but why not the villainous duo of Leo and Sam Jackson?

Shirtless Performance
Christian Bale, The Dark Knight Rises
Daniel Craig, Skyfall
Taylor Lautner, Twilight: Breaking Dawn – Part 2
Seth MacFarlane, Ted
Channing Tatum, Magic Mike
Will Win: Lots of ladies have seen Channing Tatum shirtless, and it’s mostly ladies who vote for this thing.
Should Win: It wasn’t quite at the level of his shirtless performance in Casino Royale, but Daniel Craig was still torso-and-shoulders above the rest of the field.

Best Fight
Robert Downey Jr., Chris Evans, Mark Ruffalo, Chris Hemsworth, Scarlett Johansson, and Jeremy Renner vs Tom Hiddleston , The Avengers
Christian Bale vs Tom Hardy, The Dark Knight Rises
JamieFoxx vs Candieland Henchmen, Django Unchained
Daniel Craig vs Ola Rapace, Skyfall
Mark Wahlberg vs Seth MacFarlane, Ted
Will Win: The Ted fight really wants it, but The Avengers fight had Hulk Smash.
Should Win: Hulk no like puny humans not picking The Avengers.

Best Kiss
Kerry Washington and Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Kara Hayward and Jared Gilman, Moonrise Kingdom
Emma Watson and Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Mila Kunis and Mark Wahlberg, Ted
Will and Should Win: Jen and Bradley‘s movie-capping kiss was the most memorable of the year, and it was beautifully shot.

WTF Moment
Jamie Foxx and Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
Denzel Washington, Flight
Anna Camp, Pitch Perfect
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Seth MacFarlane, Ted
Will and Should Win: Anna Camp in Pitch Perfect was the only one of these that made me react anything like WTF.

Best Villain
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Marion Cotillard, The Dark Knight Rises
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Tom Hardy, The Dark Knight Rises
Tom Hiddleston, The Avengers
Will and Should Win: Voting could be all over the place here, which might bode well for Leonardo DiCaprio, seeing as he’s the most popular of the nominees.  Good thing he deserves it.

Best Musical Moment
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Channing Tatum, Matt Bomer, Joe Manganiello, Kevin Nash and Adam Rodriguez, Magic Mike
Emma Watson, Logan Lerman and Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Anna Camp, Brittany Snow, Alexis Knapp, Ester Dean and Hana Mae Lee, Pitch Perfect
Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Will Win: Could J-Law go for 5-for-5?  She could.  This is the hardest category to call.  I’ll just go with the music-centric movie, so congratulations, ladies of Pitch Perfect.
Should Win: It’s Magic Mike time.