Oscar Surprises: How Surprising Were They?

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ExMachinaVFXTeam(The Ex Machina VFX team accepts their award.)

I was 17/24 in my Oscar predictions. Here are the 7 categories I got wrong, ranked from least to most surprising:

1. Film Editing
I Predicted: The Big Short
What Won: Mad Max: Fury Road
This was always a tight two-way fight; the surprise would have been if anything else had won.

2. Documentary Short
I Predicted: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
What Won: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
In Doc Short, I look for what can be construed as “important.” Trouble is, that descriptor could fit every nominee.

3. Animated Short
I Predicted: World of Tomorrow
What Won: Bear Story
I need to stop using the logic of “It’s so good – no way the Academy won’t vote for it!” World of Tomorrow just does not fit the charming and/or goofy mold of most Animated Short winners; Bear Story does (though it was obscured a bit by the more high-profile Sanjay’s Super Team).

4. Best Picture
I Predicted: The Big Short
What Won: Spotlight
As I suspected, it came down to the preferential ballot; unfortunately for us prognosticators, that worked in two films’ favor.

5. Supporting Actor
I Predicted: Sylvester Stallone
What Won: Mark Rylance
This race was always wide-open, even though Stallone was really the only one with any precursor indicators.

6. Original Song
I Predicted: “Til It Happens to You”
What Won: “Writing’s on the Wall”
I guess Sam Smith was second-most likely, but it sure looked like GaGa was way out in front.

7. Visual Effects
I Predicted: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What Won: Ex Machina
A film with a budget as modest as Ex Machina‘s winning Visual Effects is simply unprecedented. And with such tough competition, I would have never predicted it happening this year. (It is totally worthy, though!)

The 2015 Jeff Malone Academy Awards

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big_short_yelling

If I were in charge of unilaterally selecting the Oscars, here is who would be recognized. Nominees are listed in order of preference, winners at the top.

Best Picture
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. Ex Machina
4. Inside Out
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Lead Actress
1. Alison Brie, Sleeping with Other People
2. Brie Larson, Room
3. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
4. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Cate Blanchett, Carol

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Oscar Nominations Reactions

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-Sad to see no “See You Again” in Best Song, but at least the correct song from 50 Shades of Grey was picked.
-This is the most spread out I can ever remember the field being, as expected. Carol, Star Wars, and Straight Outta Compton had to be pretty close to Best Picture noms. Also Sicario, amazingly. And Ex Machina, too.
Room got more overall support than I was expecting. Lenny Abrahamson is your iconoclastic Director pick this year.
-Most of what I’m happy to see was expected or close to it, i.e., plenty of love for The Big Short, Stallone for Supporting, Mad Max for Costume.
-Denmark’s been doing well in Foreign Language Film this decade.
-Glad to see The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out Of The Window And Disappeared for Makeup and Hair. I haven’t seen it, but it’s probably the best title of the year.

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