Here is my annual presentation of my best guesses for who shall emerge victorious at the 98th Oscars and whom I would select on my ballot if I were a voting member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. We shall find out the truth together when Monsieur Conan O’Brien hosts the ceremony on Sunday, March 15, 2025.
Best Picture Prediction: Sinners
Preference: Sinners
Best Director Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson
Preference: Ryan Coogler
TV
–Celebrity Jeopardy! All Stars Season Premiere (March 13 on ABC)
-98th Academy Awards (March 15 on ABC) – Hosted by Conan O’Brien… for the second year in a row!
Music
-The Black Crowes, A Pound of Feathers
-James Blake, Trying Times
-Kim Gordon, PLAY ME
-Lamb of God, Into Oblivion
Sports
-Men’s March Madness (March 17-April 6 on CBS, TBS, TNT, and truTV) – And Selection Sunday shall be held March 15 on CBS.
-Women’s March Madness (March 18-April 5 on ABC and the ESPN Family of Networks) – With Selection Sunday being held March 15 on ESPN.
If it’s a sin to win Oscars, I don’t want to be a saint! (CREDIT: Warner Bros./Screenshot)
The Oscar winners are determined by the thousands of members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. But what if … they were chosen by just one person? If I were singlehandedly in charge of running the Oscars, here’s how they would go down.
Please Note: Some of my decisions about categorization (like Lead vs. Supporting for actors, or Adapted vs. Original for screenplays) may differ from those of the Academy and other awards bodies.
Nominees are listed alphabetically (either by movie title or by nominee name), winners in bold.
Best Picture
Bring Her Back
The Day the Earth Blew Up
Highest 2 Lowest
The Luckiest Man in America
Marty Supreme
The Naked Gun
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value Sinners
Weapons
Every Awards Season, I like to step forward and offer my own take on the dilemma of whether certain acting performances in the conversation should be Lead or Supporting. There are still a few contenders I’ve yet to see, but I haven’t heard any cries of Category Fraud related to those, so here are my assessments:
-Unlike last year’s first part, both Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are Leads in Wicked: For Good (Ariana even more so than Cynthia).
-Though I can see the argument for Lead, Chase Infiniti is Supporting in One Battle After Another.
-Though he carries himself like a Lead, Paul Mescal ultimately settles into a Supporting space in Hamnet.
BONUS!: Is This a Comedy?
The following movies have been categorized as comedies by awards bodies that split films into genres, thereby raising the Skepticism Hackles of some awards watchers. So here’s my verdict on whether or not they are in fact comedies:
–One Battle After Another: Kind of, but not really
–Marty Supreme: Yes!
-Should we stop splitting movies into “Drama” and “Comedy” but also nominate The Naked Gun for everything, regardless of genre?: Yes!
This assessment originally appeared in the Official Jeffrey Malone Newsletter. Subscribe here!
The votes haven been tabulated (CREDIT: Focus Features/Screenshot)
Okay, now I’m going to guess who and what I think will win at the 97th Oscars on Sunday, March 2, 2025, and you’re in luck, because I’m also going to reveal who I would select if I had a ballot.
Best Picture Prediction: Conclave
Preference: Conclave
Best Director Prediction: Sean Baker
Preference: Coralie Fargeat
You know, a lot of Jokers have won Oscars (CREDIT: Altered Innocence/Screenshot)
The Oscar winners are determined by the thousands of members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. But what if … they were chosen by just one person? If I were singlehandedly in charge of running the Oscars, here’s how they would go down.
Nominees are listed alphabetically, winners in bold.
Best Picture
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Furiosa
I Saw the TV Glow The People’s Joker
Conan Oscar O’Brien (CREDIT: Andrew Eccles/Disney)
Every week, I list all the upcoming (or recently released) movies, TV shows, albums, podcasts, etc. that I believe are worth checking out.
Movies
–Last Breath (Theaters) – Hopefully I won’t feel too claustrophobic.
–My Dead Friend Zoe (Theaters)
–Riff Raff (Theaters) – An interesting mix of cast members.
TV
-97th Academy Awards (March 2 on ABC) – Hosted by Conan O’Brien.
–Daredevil: Born Again Series Premiere (March 4 on Disney+) – A continuation of the Netflix Daredevil show.
Music
-BANKS, Off With Her Head
-Aloe Blacc, Stand Together
-Panda Bear, Sinister Grift
You may have noticed that trophies are being handed out more than usual lately. You may have also noticed that the organizations that deliver those awards may be making questionable categorization decisions.
Around this time of year, I like to assess the situation and offer my own take on certain dilemmas, in particular whether a certain movie performance was a Lead or Supporting role. To be fair to the Oscars and other awards ceremonies, these decisions are subjective and not always clear. Reasonable people can disagree on these matters. But I’m not one to have my enthusiasm dampened my ambiguity!
Ergo, here is a selection of performances from 2024 getting awards attention and whether I think they should be considered Lead or Supporting.
(There are still a few movies in the awards conversation that I haven’t seen yet, so I may update my thoughts if I feel compelled to.)
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